Sunday, July 5, 2015


       


Evaluating the evolution of Big Data through the prism of Dr. David Thornburg’s principle of Rhymes of History (Laureate Education, 2014d) rendered some colorful perspectives for me. Following the tenets of the principle one must look to the past for affects and impacts that the emerging technology being evaluated is rekindling. We look not so much for the rekindling of the technology but for how the technology was used by people; its purpose.  The quest for ways and means to predict the future is a quest that reaches as far back as 1400 BC and encompasses many cultures. The technology we use today is markedly different, but the objective is notably paralleled. 
Big Data predictive software players market tools like Oracle Data Miner, Statsoft Statistica, Rapid Miner and Mahout to read the virtual data tea leaves to predict outcomes for business, education, health and a wide range of end-users seeking paths to avoid or take towards success.

Before Christ and After
Perhaps predictive software producer, Oracle, may have taken its name from the 8th century Oracle of Delphi. Kings and the wealthy from Africa, Asia Minor and Sicily flocked to Greece to seek the prophetic advice from the priestesses in the shrine.  King Saul sought advice from the dead using the divination services of the witch of Endor (I Samuel 28).  There have been many prophets issuing prophesies that enabled preparation for the implications such as the birth of Christ and even his death. Could Pharaoh have used the Census of Quirinius to find the new king that hailed his demise?

Sure about that, Mr. Twain?
Whether the future can be predicted from the past is still up for debate. Along with whether it actually repeats itself or not as Mark Twain quipped. Pioneering innovators in the field of predictive analytic solutions such as Dr. Kira Radinsky, are using large-scale human history to predict our economic future among other significant human circumstances. 

   

Prediction vs. Projection
Nostradamus, though credited with accurately predicting dozens of historical world events, did not consider himself a prophet according to Peter Lemesurier, author of "Nostradamus, Bibliomancer: The Man, the Myth, the Truth" (Radford, 2012). It is evident that what Nostradamus  did believe was that history repeats itself, and he thus projected known past events into the future.


 Tea anyone?
 Big Data utilizes visual predictive analytics;    the rhyme  for which can be  found in the  practice of  Tasseography or  reading tea    leaves  which has  been practiced  by the  Chinese  for thousands  of  years.  This  diagram was included in an interview with
 Ed  Schmidt of AT&T on  his 2011 mobile  development predictions. I hazard to guess  that it was placed in jest, but who knows?



References

Laureate Education (Producer). (2014h). David Thornburg: Rhymes of history [Video file]. Baltimore, MD: Author.

Radford, B. (2012, October 23). Nostradamus: Predictions of Things Past. LivesScience.com.     Retrieved from http://www.livescience.com/24213-nostradamus.html

8 comments:

  1. Rhyme, Reason or Research?

    Regarding Dr. Radinsky’s talk, I was living in Arkansas at the time of that bird and fish kill, which most researchers there had related them to the oil industry, spills and fracking in our state. It was interesting to hear the outcome of her research effort was similar. However, when taking into consideration the in-depth calculations required for predictions like this it occurred to me that just one “wild card” or disruptive technology that appears out of nowhere could turn those statistics around rather quickly. (Laureate Education, 2014j)

    References

    Laureate Education (Producer). (2014j). David Thornburg: Six forces that drive emerging technologies [Video file]. Baltimore, MD: Author.

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  2. Interesting take on predictive software. I didn't realize the correlation between reading tea leaves and predicting data until you discussed it. Wow. Truly fascinating. What's interesting about predictive software is that it reads past usage to predict and possibly prevent future hangups. As educators, too much time is spent on essentially "fighting fires" when time should be spent on preventing them from the start to better manage time and behavior. Allowing technologies to utilize the predictive software can possibly make it more time efficient and effective to double its usage power. Because "a technology goes through a predictable, nonlinear process in which it becomes exponentially more powerful over time" our output and proficiency in the workforce can essentially double in volume (Laureate Education, 2014j).

    Resources:
    Laureate Education (Producer). (2014j). David Thornburg: Six forces that drive emerging technologies [Video file]. Baltimore, MD: Author.

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    Replies
    1. Preventing fires as opposed to having to fight them is a good analogy here. Mark Twain's quote about history not repeating but rhyming is widely quoted, but I think it is more opinion than fact. Predicting things like the rise or fall of the economy and the next cholera outbreak or the next educational paradigm shift is cool and valuable science.

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  4. Monica,

    You make several valid philosophical rationales. I am particularly impressed with your observations regarding prediction vs. projection. One could certainly argue that emerging technologies are greatly influenced by needs that replace obsolete theories. Hence, in early dentistry they used alcohol as a sedative. Out of sheer need, doctors discovered laughing gas (nitrous oxide) as a more desirable alternative--with greater success.

    Many futurists have made an immense impact in the area of emerging technologies based their dislike of undesirable and inferior technologies:

    Bio-Plastic (banana peel) vs. petroleum based pollution
    Wind Turbines vs. nuclear power plants
    Natural gas vs. coal


    References

    Froelich, A. (2013). 16 year-old invents bio-plastic from banana peels. True Activist. Retrieved June 10, 2015 from http://www.trueactivist.com/16-year-old-invents-sustainable-bio-plastic-from-banana-peels/

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  5. Just wondering, if predictive software is rekindled by the reading of tea leaves in the past, I wonder what will rekindle predictive software in a few years. One thing that comes to mind is androids or robots using this kind of technology to replicate human behavior.

    There is a show called Person of Interest that I believe advances the idea of predictive technology. The machine predicts criminal behavior and provides the user with the criminal's SSN so they can stop the crime if possible. I believe the technology used in similar to predictive technology.

    I enjoyed reading your presentation and how you presented the information.

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  6. Just had to thank you again for the video tutorial you offered to us on the Blackboard Discussion editing capabilities and how to get images to load up. Wow! Now I see how you are able to build such a robust blog. And, TinyMCE is an incredible tool/share. You ARE a True Teacher, MoNica.

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